Paradoxically, Bitcoin could, according to André Drogosch, the European research manager of Bitwis, in the face of the American economy. This perspective is explained by the expectations of the decline in interest rates and the weakening of the dollar, which is two factors particularly favorable to the crypto.
In short
- In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy closed by 0.3 %, which fears concerns about the recession.
- Markets now expect a decrease in the Fed level in July, with a probability of 58 %.
- The US dollar (DXY) has lost 8.3 %since the beginning of the year, despite a slight reflection on Wednesday.
- Bitcoins show signs of the department with stock markets and more gold is approaching.
A recession that changes the situation for bitcoins
For the first time in three years, the US economy closed in the first quarter of 2025 and showed a decrease of 0.3 % at a year.
This announcement of the Office for Economic Analysis caused a temporary drop in the price of Bitcoins for $ 93,300 this Wednesday, reflecting initial investors concerns.
André Dragosch, analyst Bitwis, still considers a favorable conversion in this situation: “ What was initially lower for bitcoins now turns into the back wind “Decrypt said. According to him, Haussier Market should continue despite economic turbulence.
This perspective is based on a radical change in market expectations. If the customs duties imposed by President Trump first feared long -term maintenance of high rates, operators now expect the opposite: an accelerated reduction in the economic support in difficulties.
Strategic department with dollar
Traders now consider it probable (58 % chance) that the Fed reduces its key rate to a range of 3.75-4 % from July, two consecutive reduction by a quarter point. This prospect of increased liquidity and cheaper loans traditionally supports risk assets.
Bitcoin, however, has a special advantage in the face of events in this context. ” This is an asset disconnected from the system “He explains Dragosch and emphasizes that, unlike businesses, crypto has not met the same challenges of valuation during the recession.
Even more importantly, bitcoins show signs of American events and develop more in parallel with gold. This dynamics is part of a wider context of dedollarization, where the US dollar index has fallen by 8.3 %since January.
Bitcoin tends to have a strong reverse sensitivity to the dollar. If you expect structural depreciation of the dollar, Bitcoin might be an ideal coverage.
In this context with American economic fragility, Bitcoin, currently around $ 94,000, could find an unexpected allies in the recession, reinforced by its emerging refuge status and initiatives, such as Arizona, who plans to make him a strategic state reserve.
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Passionate Bitcoin, I like to explore meanders blockchain and cryptos and share my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom is guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a tool that can make it possible.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.
